AAS 97-708
PROBABILITY ANALYSIS OF NEW COMET FLYBY FOR CONTOUR MISSION
A. Friedlander and D. German - Science Applications International Corporation
Abstract
The contour mission is a Discovery program candidate that would nominally flyby three short-period comets (Encke, SW3, d'Arrest) employing multiple Earth gravity-assists for retargeting. This paper examines the trajectory characteristics and success statistics of retargeting the spacecraft to a new (first-apparition) comet should the opportunity arise. The analytical approach is threefold: (1) proof-of-concept trajectory generation to pseudo Hale-Bopp with adjusted perihelion date; (2) manifold of reachable post-swingby orbits from planned Earth encounter conditions; and (3) Monte-Carlo trajectory simulation based on random sampling of a new comet's intrinsic distributions of orbital elements and brightness. Mission success probability is very encouraging (> 60% chance even with encounter constraints imposed).