AAS 97-639
PROBABILITY OF COLLISIONS IN SPACE
K.C. Carlton-Wippern - University of Colorado at Colorado Springs
Abstract
This paper addresses the mathematical development for assessing the probability that two individual orbiting objects will collide. The analysis begins by assuming that, at the time of closest approach, the velocity vectors of both objects are well known; the size, shape and orientation of both objects are definable and well known, at and/or about the time of closest approach the probability of the event of a collision is driven primarily by the uncertainties in the positions of the two objects and the uncertainties are quantifiable in such a manner that the relative velocity of the two objects can be assumed piecewise linear at or about the time of the event. The derivation utilizes a set theory approach to evaluating the distinct event of a single collision, which distinguishes this paper from other analyses on the subject.