AAS 97-636
PREDICTION OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY
G. Heckman -National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Abstract
Solar Cycle 22, as measured by 13-month smoothed sunspot numbers, began in September 1986, and according to currently available data, probably ended in May 1996. The next cycle, numbered 23, appears to be under way. Small geomagnetic storms have continued through the time of minimum and to the present. The 10.7 cm radio flux (used as a surrogate for EUV flux) has increased only slightly over the past few months. At some point in the near future sunspot numbers and the 10.7 cm flux will begin a consistent rise, marking the end of a period around minimum when these parameters fluctuate near their smallest values. In anticipation of Cycle 23, The NOAA Space Environment Center (SEC), with support from NASA, convened a group of experienced solar experts in the fall of 1996 for the purpose of surveying forecasts for the new cycle and to recommend a forecast or group of forecasts for maximum smoothed 10.7 cm flux and sunspot numbers. That panel's predictions are for a maximum smoothed